METODE SISTEM
oleh Dr. Andreo Wahyudi Atmoko, MSi.
TOPIK
• Prinsip Sistem • Paradigma & Klasifikasi Metode Sistem • Kapan Menggunakan Metode System
Dynamics
• Langkah2 Pemodelan System Dynamics
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1. Prinsip Sistem
System? A collection of parts that interact with one another to function as a whole. A System is more than the sum of its part – it is the product of their interaction (Ackoff, 1993); A grouping of parts that operate together for a common purpose (Forrester, 1968).
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SYSTEMS THINKING? Adalah cara memandang masalah sebagai sebuah sistem; yaitu memandang masalah secara menyeluruh (wholeness) dan adanya keterkaitan antar bagian sistem (connectedness).
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Konsep sistem mengandung: 1. Element/unsur 2. Relationship 3. Boundary 4. Input & output 5. Environtment 6. Feedback (Flood & Jackson, 1991)
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Ciri Sistem
SISTEM = KUMPULAN UNSUR YANG SALING BERKAITAN DAN BERSAMA-SAMA MELAKUKAN FUNGSI TERTENTU
CIRI:
UNSUR BANYAK, LEBIH DARI SATU SALING BERHUBUNGAN, SALING BERGANTUNGAN, SALING BERINTERAKSI SECARA MENYELURUH, BERSAMA-SAMA FUNGSI TERTENTU, TUJUAN BERSAMA
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Sifat Sistem
SISTEM TERDIRI DARI BEBERAPA SUBSISTEM. SISTEM MENJADI BAGIAN (SUBSISTEM) DARI SISTEM YANG LEBIH BESAR SIFAT SISTEM ADALAH SIFAT SISTEM MENYELURUH. SIFAT SISTEM HANYA MUNCUL APABILA SISTEM BEKERJA SECARA MENYELURUH. SUBSISTEM TIDAK MEMILIKI SIFAT SISTEM A. Wahyudi Atmoko
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MEMECAH SISTEM MENJADI SUBSISTEM ADALAH ANALISIS. ANALISIS BERTUJUAN UNTUK MENDALAMI PENGETAHUAN TENTANG SUBSISTEM. SIFAT SUBSISTEM BUKAN SIFAT SISTEM MENYELURUH. MEMBANGUN SUBSISTEM MENJADI SISTEM ADALAH SINTESIS. SINTESIS BERTUJUAN UNTUK MENGETAHUI SIFAT SISTEM SECARA MENYELURUH.
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SEMUA SUBSISTEM MEMPUNYAI PENGARUH TERHADAP SISTEM (MIS. TUBUH, MOBIL) KETERKAITAN MENGAKIBATKAN KOMPLEKSITAS. DETAIL COMPLEXITY = BESARNYA JUMLAH SUBSISTEM (MIS. JIGSAW PUZZLE). DYNAMIC COMPLEXITY = BESARNYA JUMLAH KETERKAITAN SUBSISTEM (MIS.
CATUR)
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MENGUBAH SUATU SUBSISTEM AKAN MENGAKIBATKAN PERUBAHAN DALAM SISTEM, DAN AKAN TERJADI AKIBAT SAMPINGAN SISTEM AKAN MELAWAN PERUBAHAN YANG TERJADI DALAM SISTEM, KARENA SUBSISTEM SALING TERKAIT DALAM SISTEM DALAM SISTEM TERDAPAT SUBSISTEM YANG DENGAN UPAYA KECIL DAPAT MENGAKIBATKAN PERUBAHAN BESAR DALAM SISTEM = LEVERAGE Small push in the right direction is enough” (Senge, 1990) A. Wahyudi Atmoko
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Fenomena Bisnis Gula + Int’l Trade Issue
Ekspor +
Penimbunan +
Panen +
+
Stok Nasional +
+ Supply Penanaman Tebu
-
+
-
-
Harga
+
+
Minat + Tanam
Konsumsi
Subsidi
Impor +
+
Isu Politik
+
-
+ Spekulan
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ST dalam Keseharian
CYCLICAL PATTERN WE ARE IN THIS TOGETHER FLUCTUATING PATTERN VICIOUS CIRCLE DOMINO EFFECT
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RIPPLE EFFECT CHRONIC BEHAVIOUR DOWNWARD/UPWARD SPIRAL SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY SNOWBALLING ORGANISASI PEMBELAJARAN
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2. Paradigma & Klasifikasi Sistem KLASIFIKASI SISTEM dalam TSI Dimensi Peserta
Simple: • a small number of elements; • few interactions between the elements; • attributes of element are predetermined; • well-defined laws govern behavior; • the ‘system’ does not evolve over time; • ‘sub-systems’ does not pursue their goal; • the ‘system’ is unaffected by behavioral influences; • the ‘system’ is lagely closed to the environment. Pluralist • a large number of elements; • many interactions between the elements; • attributes of the elements are not predetermined; • interaction between elements is loosely organised; • they are probabilistic in their behavior; • the ‘system’ evolves over time. A. Wahyudi Atmoko
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Dimensi Sistem Unitary: • they share common interests; • their value & beliefs are higly compatible; • they largely agree upon ends & means; • they all participate in decision making; • they act in accordance with agreed objectives. Pluralist • they have a basic compatibility of interest; • their value & beliefs diverge to some extent; • they do not necessarily agree upon ends & means, but compromise is possible; • they all participate in decision making; • they act in accordance with agreed objectives. Coercive • they do not share common interest; • their value & beliefs are likely to conflict; • they do not agree upon ends & means & ‘genuine’ compromise is not possible; • some coerce others to accept decision; • no agreement over objectives is possible given systemic arrangements. A. Wahyudi Atmoko
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Ragam Metode Sistem: •
SSM (Soft System Methodology)
•
SD (System Dynamics)
•
VSD (Viable System Diagnosis)
•
TSI (Total Systems Intervention)
•
SAST (Strategic Assumtion Surfacing and Testing)
•
IP (Interactive Planning)
•
CSH (Critical System Heuristics)
•
SODA (Strategic Options Development and Analysis)
•
Cognitive Mapping
•
Etc.
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Peta Sistem dari Flood & Jackson UNITARY SIMPLE
• OR • SA • SE • SD
COMPLEX
• VSD • GST • Socio Tech. • Contingency theory
PLURALIST • SSD • SAST
• Interactive Planning • SSM
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COERCIVE • Critical systems heuristics ?
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Penggunaan Model dalam Sistem Hitung BerapaJumlah Umur Segitiga! Wanita dalam Gambar ini?
Apa Arti Gambar ini?
Fakta dalam Gambar
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Jenis Model dalam Metode Sistem
MODEL KERAS
MODEL LUNAK
1. DEFINISI MODEL
REPRESENTASI DUNIA NYATA
MERANGSANG DISKUSI TENTANG INSIGHT DUNIA NYATA
2. DEFINISI SOAL
JELAS DENGAN TUJUAN TUNGGAL
AMBIGUOUS (TIDAK TERLALU JELAS) DENGAN TUJUAN JAMAK
3. PESERTA DAN ORGANISASI
TIDAK DIMASUKKAN BAGIAN INTEGRAL DALAM MODEL DARI MODEL A. Wahyudi Atmoko
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MODEL KERAS
MODEL LUNAK KUANTITATIF & KUALITATIF
4. DATA
KUANTATIF
5. GOAL
PENDALAMAN, PROSES SOLUSI/OPTIMISASI, PEMBELAJARAN, PREDIKSI PENDALAMAN
6. KELUARAN
HASIL SIMULASI, PRODUK, REKOMENDASI
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KEMAJUAN MELALUI GROUP LEARNING
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3. Kapan Menggunakan SD System Dynamics: … the investigation of the information-feedback characteristics of [managed] systems and the use of models for the design of improved organizational form and guiding policy (Forrester, 1961). A rigorous method for qualitative description, exploration and analysis of complex systems in terms of their processes, information, organizational boundaries and strategies; wich facilitates quantitative simulation modelling and analysis for design of system structure and behavior (Wolstenhome, 1990). dalam Coyle (1996: 9)
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Capture Nonlinearity Dynamic Causality & Endogenous Behavior
Nature of Managerial & Social System
In builds Strengths of Both Traditional Mgt & Mgt Science and Complement Weakness
Limitation of Traditional Management
Utilizes Strength of Human Mind & Mental Models and Complement their weakness by technology
Limitation of Human Mind Different source of Information
SYSTEM DYNAMICS
Bounded Rationality in Decision Making
Matches Strength and weakness of multiple sources of information Portray Bounded Rationality and helps in overcoming Bounds
Limited Interplay Knowledge and Policy Debates
Enrich interplay with Micro-world by providing Maps Using Feedback and Behavioral Decision Theory
Direct Feedback From Real Life on Policy Implementation
Intermediate Feedback about Impacts of Policies Through Simulation (Sushil, 1993)
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4. Langkah Pemodelan SD Metode Pemodelan External Concern
• Modeling is embedded in the dynamic of the system. (in single and double loops learning feedback) • Effective modeling involve constant iteration between experiments and learning in the virtual world and experiments and learning in the real world John Sterman, 2000, FIG 3-2, p.88
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Understanding of the system
Problem Identification & Definition
Policy Implementation
Policy Analysis & Improvement System Conceptualization Simulation & Validation
(Sushil, 1993)
Model Formulaton
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Problem Definition
Conceptual
System Conseptualization
Refinement
Model Representation
Model Behavior
Technical
( Richardson & Pugh, 1986)
Model Evaluation
Policy Analysis & Model Use A. Wahyudi Atmoko
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Co nt d.
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